The COVID-19 pandemic inflicted turmoil across the global private markets in the first half of 2020. Notably, private equity valuations, fundraising and deal activity declined. Below, we highlight some of the key effects of this volatility on private equity, credit, and real estate, with more extensive coverage available in the Q2 2020 edition of iCapital Network’s Alternative Investments Compendium.
The pace of global private equity fundraising in the first half of (1H) 2020 offered a bifurcated picture. While the overall fundraising pace decelerated, most large and well-established general partners (GPs) that were somewhat familiar to investors did not see a meaningful slowdown. Smaller and/or emerging GPs (such as first-time funds), however, did see an impact – with many LPs pausing commitments to unfamiliar managers or those whom they not consider to be cycle-tested, particularly as they were still gauging their own comfort level in conducting due diligence virtually. Overall, $259 billion was raised by private equity funds in 1H 2020, which is likely to translate into a slower year than the steady fundraising pace of 2017-19.
In private credit, 1H 2020 also saw fundraising decline (with $56 billion raised globally). iCapital expects this trend to reverse in the second half of the year, driven by distressed debt funds. There is currently a vast amount of capital being raised for distressed debt-focused vehicles in light of the growing opportunity set driven by the pandemic’s impact on the global economy.
Global Private Equity Fundraising1
Global Private Debt Fundraising
1. Source: Preqin, as of June 30, 2020. Past performance is not indicative of future results. For illustrative purposes only.
Stalled Deal Activity
Private equity deal activity decelerated sharply in 1H 2020, as GPs moved their focus away from closing new deals and toward shoring up existing portfolios, making sure companies were adequately equipped (and had sufficient liquidity) to weather the first few months of the pandemic. Many fund managers also paused – and in some cases, even reneged on – closing new deals ahead of an expected lower-valuation environment, which would allow GPs to acquire new companies for attractive valuations compared with prior years.
Global real estate deal activity also plummeted to its lowest level in eight years, with the market experiencing a steeper drop than it did following the Global Financial Crisis. Activity is expected to remain subdued, with retail and hospitality unlikely to recover until COVID-19 is widely contained and there are indications of an economic recovery.
Global Private Equity Deal Activity2
Commercial* Private Equity Real Estate Investment Since 2008
2. Source: Preqin, as of June 30, 2020. Note: *Commercial is based on office, retail and industrial property types. Past performance is not indicative of future results. For illustrative purposes only.
Decline in Valuations
Private equity GPs have taken a characteristically conservative approach to valuing portfolio companies in light of COVID-19. Amid anachronistic soaring valuations for many public companies, private equity valuations – which have remained, on average, lower than public market valuations for nearly a decade – declined 8% in the first half of 2020. This is a topic we’ll cover in greater depth in an upcoming blog.
Long-term Benefits of Private Credit
Direct lending (typically senior secured private credit) continues to demonstrate its ability to generate long-term outperformance with less volatility than the leveraged loan and high yield markets. The asset class benefits from several traits that allow it to weather a crisis such as COVID-19 better than these markets. This includes fund managers’ ability to conduct in-depth diligence and implement stricter loan documentation, including covenants.
Global Fixed Income Performance
Sources: eVestment and Cliffwater Direct Lending Index as of March 31, 2020; standard deviation is quarterly. Cliffwater Direct Lending Index is a private market index. Future results are not guaranteed and loss of principal may occur.
See more COVID-19-related impacts on alternative investments, including private equity, private credit, hedge funds, and real estate in the Q2 2020 edition of the Alternative Investments Compendium.
This material is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended as, and may not be relied on in any manner as legal, tax or investment advice, a recommendation, or as an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to purchase or a recommendation of any interest in any fund or security offered by Institutional Capital Network, Inc. or its affiliates (together “iCapital Network”). Past performance is not indicative of future results. Alternative investments are complex, speculative investment vehicles and are not suitable for all investors. An investment in an alternative investment entails a high degree of risk and no assurance can be given that any alternative investment fund’s investment objectives will be achieved or that investors will receive a return of their capital. The information contained herein is subject to change and is also incomplete. This industry information and its importance is an opinion only and should not be relied upon as the only important information available. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed, and iCapital Network assumes no liability for the information provided.
Products offered by iCapital Network are typically private placements that are sold only to qualified clients of iCapital Network through transactions that are exempt from registration under the Securities Act of 1933 pursuant to Rule 506(b) of Regulation D promulgated thereunder (“Private Placements”). An investment in any product issued pursuant to a Private Placement, such as the funds described, entails a high degree of risk and no assurance can be given that any alternative investment fund’s investment objectives will be achieved or that investors will receive a return of their capital. Further, such investments are not subject to the same levels of regulatory scrutiny as publicly listed investments, and as a result, investors may have access to significantly less information than they can access with respect to publicly listed investments. Prospective investors should also note that investments in the products described involve long lock-ups and do not provide investors with liquidity.
Securities may be offered through iCapital Securities, LLC, a registered broker dealer, member of FINRA and SIPC and subsidiary of Institutional Capital Network, Inc. (d/b/a iCapital Network). These registrations and memberships in no way imply that the SEC, FINRA or SIPC have endorsed the entities, products or services discussed herein. iCapital and iCapital Network are registered trademarks of Institutional Capital Network, Inc. Additional information is available upon request.
© 2020 Institutional Capital Network, Inc. All Rights Reserved.