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Private market activity remained robust across 2021, though there are signs in our Alternative Investments Compendium that the market may cool in 2022.

In 2021, private equity registered record-highs in deal and exit activity globally—both in terms of deal number and aggregate deal value—which also pushed buyout exit valuations to new heights.1 U.S. venture capital deal value came in at more than double the previous record set in 2020.2 Global private credit fundraising recorded its second highest annual total.

Signs of public market turbulence affecting private markets

Private markets, however, are far from immune to the gyrations roiling public markets. There are signs emerging in data from the first quarter of 2022 (which also reflects conversations with our industry partners) of an incipient slowdown in private equity.

Take exit activity as an example. Following a frantic 2021 and facing a more uncertain public market, economic, and exit environment, private equity fund managers appear to be adopting a more cautious approach.

Private equity exit activity set to slow in 2022

There were just 554 private equity exits recorded globally in the first quarter, with an aggregate value of $203 billion.3 While this extremely slow pace is unlikely to be maintained across 2022, exit activity does seem set to moderate.

In terms of exit path, the IPO market—though typically accounting for only a small share of exits—basically evaporated in the first quarter, accounting for just 0.5% of U.S. private equity exits. This is the lowest percentage on record.4

Venture capital (VC) deal activity shows signs of slowing too. Deal count and aggregate value, though still relatively strong, are both on pace to come in below the record pace of 2021.5 It is likely that the plunge in tech stocks will ripple through and show up more obviously in second quarter data, as valuation declines dampen VC deal and exit activity, particularly in late-stage VC, which is most reliant on the IPO market for exits.

Winds of change blow through hedge fund space

Data for hedge funds, which are far more immediately responsive to public market activity, highlights the dramatic shifts wrought by recent volatility.

Most investors will be acutely aware of how the standard global 60/40 equity/fixed income allocation swung from feast over recent years to famine in the first quarter—with bonds providing almost no shelter from the stock market decline.6 Our data shows that this decline has flipped hedge fund strategy performance on its head. Global macro and multi-strategy funds have outperformed relative to both equity hedge and event driven strategies this year, after years of the inverse being true.

Relative hedge fund strategy performance has inverted from recent trends

Macro and multi-strategy are generally more diversified across asset classes and less directional.7 Equity hedge and event driven strategies tend to be more long-leaning approaches, which is a tailwind during bull markets but becomes a drag when the market turns.8

Macro strategies will also have benefited from typically greater exposure to commodities: commodity prices rose at the fastest rate in over two decades in 2021 and may exceed that pace in 2022.

Commodity prices have extended their 2021 spike into 2022

Having invested through a rare period of almost-uninterrupted outperformance by long-only assets, advisors and investors are coming to grips with a much-changed environment, one that is making clear the value of hedging and diversification.

For a more detailed overview of alternative investments—including private equity, private credit, hedge funds, and real estate—read the second-quarter edition of the Alternative Investments Compendium.

 
 
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(1) Source: PitchBook, as of March 31, 2022.
(2) Source: PitchBook, as of March 31, 2022.
(3) Source: PitchBook, as of March 31, 2022.
(4) Source: PitchBook, as of March 31, 2022. Note: Does not include bankruptcies, write-offs, or recapitalizations.
(5) Source: PitchBook, as of March 31, 2022.
(6) Source: PGIM, “US Stock–Bond Correlation: What Are the Macroeconomic Drivers?,” May 2021.
(7) Source: CAIA, “Hedge Fund Strategies”.
(8) Ibid.


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This material is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended as, and may not be relied on in any manner as legal, tax or investment advice, a recommendation, or as an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to purchase or a recommendation of any interest in any fund or security offered by Institutional Capital Network, Inc. or its affiliates (together “iCapital”). Past performance is not indicative of future results. Alternative investments are complex, speculative investment vehicles and are not suitable for all investors. An investment in an alternative investment entails a high degree of risk and no assurance can be given that any alternative investment fund’s investment objectives will be achieved or that investors will receive a return of their capital. The information contained herein is subject to change and is also incomplete. This industry information and its importance is an opinion only and should not be relied upon as the only important information available. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed, and iCapital assumes no liability for the information provided.

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Tatiana Esipovich

Tatiana Esipovich

Tatiana Esipovich is a Senior Vice President on the Research & Due Diligence team. Prior to joining iCapital in 2017, Tatiana worked at DB Private Equity (part of Deutsche Asset Management) in New York. Tatiana started her career at Deutsche Bank in London. She received an MA in Modern Languages from Oxford University.

Jeffrey Brozek, CFA

Jeffrey Brozek, CFA

Jeff is a Senior Vice President on the Investment Products and Research team at iCapital, focusing on hedge fund strategies across single and multi-manager product offerings. Previously, Jeff was a Senior Vice President and Strategy Head of Equity Hedge Funds at EACM Advisors, a multi-billion dollar hedge fund advisory firm and subsidiary of BNY Mellon Corp. He is a CFA charterholder and received his BS and MBA with specializations in Finance and Real Estate from the University of Connecticut.

Patrick Callahan, CFA

Patrick Callahan, CFA

Patrick is a Vice President on the Investment Products and Research team at iCapital focusing on hedge funds. He is responsible for researching and performing due diligence on potential platform funds and monitoring incumbent managers. Prior to joining iCapital, Patrick spent more than seven years as an allocator, creating customized hedge fund portfolios for institutional investors. He previously spent several years as a trader and as an analyst, investing in equities, credit, derivatives, and commodities. Patrick holds a BA in Economics from the University of Connecticut and is a CFA charterholder.

Kimling Fink

Kimling Fink

Kimling is a Senior Vice President on the Investment Products and Research team at iCapital, focusing on private capital strategies across single and multi-manager product offerings. Previously, she was a Director, Investment Management at AT&T, with responsibility for the private capital portfolio within the company’s defined benefit pension plan. Kimling also held roles at Canterbury Consulting, StepStone Group, and Parish Capital Advisors. Kimling holds a BS in Business Administration (Finance and Marketing) from Villanova University and is a CFA charterholder.